Toyota is going to lose this bet. There is little reason to believe hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs) will ever beat electric vehicles in the car market. There is even less reason to believe they will ever be a cost-effective carbon-reducing strategy (as EVs already are close to being) as I discussed in Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.
To be clear, this isn’t FCVs versus Tesla. This is FCVs versus every other car, including electric vehicles (EVs). The series has the “Tesla Trumps Toyota” headline since it was inspired by an article titled Toyota Bets Against Tesla With New Hydrogen Car, which also discussed their broken partnership.
I believe we now know enough about EVs, the global car market, the world’s growing response to the threat of unrestricted carbon pollution, and the steady advances being made in battery technology to know with confidence that EVs will be a major player in the global car market in the coming years. That is true even if Tesla doesn’t succeed. And it has been clear for a decade, at least, that if electric cars can succeed in the marketplace that leaves very little room for hydrogen cars, as the links above make clear.
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As of today, it remains entirely possible that hydrogen fuel cell cars will never solve the problem of delivering cost-effective emissions reductions in the transportation sector — a problem EVs do not have. I discussed that in Part 1 and Part 2.
But the United States, Japan, and other countries — and many automakers — continue to misallocate funds toward near-term deployment of deeply flawed hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Because of that, and because after 25 years of dawdling on climate action we lack the time to keep making such multi-billion dollar mistakes, I will discuss the 7 barriers FCVs still face today in more detail in subsequent posts. I will also discuss how EVs have been tearing down the few remaining barriers to their marketplace success.
Read more at Tesla Trumps Toyota: The Seven Reasons Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars Are Stalled
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