China to Surpass U.S. as Top Cause of Modern Global Warming

China is poised to overtake the United States as the main cause of man-made global warming since 1990, the benchmark year for U.N.-led action, in a historic shift that may raise pressure on Beijing to act.

China's cumulative greenhouse gas emissions since 1990, when governments were becoming aware of climate change, will outstrip those of the United States in 2015 or 2016, according to separate estimates by experts in Norway and the United States.

The shift, reflecting China's stellar economic growth, raises questions about historical blame for rising temperatures and more floods, desertification, heatwaves and sea level rise.
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Shared Blame

"All countries now have responsibility. It's not just a story about China -- it's a story about the whole world," said Ottmar Edenhofer of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-chair of a U.N. climate report last year.

India will overtake Russia's cumulative emissions since 1990 in the 2020s to rank fourth behind China, the United States and the European Union, according to the CICERO calculations.

China surpassed the United States as the top annual emitter of carbon dioxide in around 2006 and now emits more each year than the United States and the European Union combined.  Per capita emissions by its 1.3 billion people are around EU levels.

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