Climate Change a ‘Contributing Factor’ in Syrian Conflict

Moist air comes flowing off the Mediterranean into Syria each winter, unleashing rains that transform the dull brown countryside into myriad hues of green.  But in 2005, the rains never fully materialized, the first of five consecutive failed rainy seasons that sparked the worst drought in Syria’s history and directly preceded the country’s descent into civil war.

A groundbreaking study published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science shows that climate change doubled or even tripled the likelihood of the drought that became part of a cascade of events that have killed and displaced millions, gave rise to Islamic State and left a country in ruins.

“This is maybe the first example of connecting emerging climate change to a modern conflict.  This is not an analysis of Mesoamerica or something historical.  This is happening today,” said Colin Kelley, lead author of the new study and a PACE postdoctoral fellow at University of California, Santa Barbara.

The study builds on a growing body of literature that has linked climate events such as heat waves and drought to conflict.  The findings also reflect the Pentagon’s view that climate change is a threat multiplier that poses “immediate risks.”  But rather than focusing on past events, the findings are based squarely in the present.

The drought that began in 2005 was the most severe on record for Syria.  It serves as a punctuation mark on a winter drying trend that has been happening since record keeping began in 1900 and has become more severe in the last 25 years.  Three of the four most severe droughts on record for the country have occurred since the late 1980s.

The drying trend and most recent drought aren’t just an artifact of natural climate variability.  Kelley used models to see how greenhouse gas emissions influenced the drought.  His analysis shows that they made the drought up to three times more likely.

Rising temperatures, particularly in summer, could also be playing a role in making droughts more likely and severe.  Summer temperatures across the Fertile Crescent have risen by about 2.2°F since 1900.  High heat can suck moisture out of the soil, further reinforcing drought.

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