Clean Energy to Stave Off Catastrophic Climate Change Possible by 2050, Barely

A draft of the report, called the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project, was delivered to the United Nations on Tuesday.  It was developed by researchers working in the 15 countries that have the highest CO2 emissions and shows how each of those countries could rapidly reduce its emissions by 2050.

Carbon emissions have been rising since the start of the Industrial Revolution.  But they’ll have to be curbed soon, and sharply, to keep the globe from warming above “safe” levels. A new report lays out avenues to get there and shows that while it’s possible, it’ll take a little human ingenuity and a lot of global cooperation.

“We’ve just about exhausted the carbon budget.  The world is unfortunately engaged in a massive gamble,” said Jeff Sachs, director of Columbia University’s Earth Institute and one of the leaders of the new report.

According to the new report, annual CO2 emissions would have to be slashed to 11 gigatons from our current level of about 36 gigatons by 2050.  Put another way, each of the world’s 7 billion people is responsible for 5.2 tons of CO2 emissions each year (though much of that comes from developed countries).  By 2050, there will be another 2.5 billion people, and annual per capita CO2 emissions will likely have to be reduced to 1.6 tons to keep warming within the 2°C range.

If that sounds daunting, it is.  The world’s governments have failed to take meaningful action to get to those levels, in part because it means leaving a lot of fossil fuels, and the riches that go with them, in the ground.  But it doesn’t mean it can’t be achieved.

“The basic conclusion of this report is the 2°C limit is achievable, but just barely. We’ve gone on so far with rising CO2 emissions, and greenhouse gas emissions more generally, that we’re just about out of time to meet this crucial limit,” Sachs said.

Clean Energy to Stave Off Catastrophic Climate Change Possible by 2050, Barely