Europe’s Flood Risk May Double by 2050

The catastrophic floods that soaked Europe last summer and the United Kingdom this winter are part of the pattern of things to come.  According to a new study of flood risk in Nature Climate Change [link to be added when available] annual average losses from extreme floods in Europe could increase fivefold by 2050.  And the frequency of destructive floods could almost double in that period.

About two thirds of the losses to come could be explained by socio-economic growth, according to a team led by Brenden Jongman of the University of Amsterdam in the Netherlands and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler of theInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria.

That is because more development and investment means there is more at risk from any flooding.  But the other third of the increase will be delivered by climate change, and a shift in rainfall patterns in Europe. 

Unprecedented floods like those of 2013 occur on average once every 16 years now.  By 2050, the probability will have increased to once every 10 years.

Europe’s Flood Risk May Double by 2050