Friday, February 07, 2014

2013 Was the Second-Hottest Year on Record Without an El Niño

Global surface temperature data from Cowtan & Way, separated into El Niño (red), La Niña (blue), and Neutral (black) years for 1966–2013, with linear trends plotted for each category. Click to enlarge.
According to the global surface temperate data set compiled by Kevin Cowtan & Robert Way, which achieves the best coverage of the rapidly-warming Arctic by filling in data gaps between temperature stations using a statistical method called kriging, 2013 was the 5th-hottest year on record (since 1850).  The top three hottest years (2010, 2005, and 2007) were influenced by El Niño events, which cause short-term warming of the Earth's atmosphere.

Over the past decade, we've seen less warming at the surface and more warming in the oceans.  This has been in large part due to a change in Pacific Ocean cycles.  We're currently in a cycle that tends to produce more La Niña than El Niño events, which has resulted in the oceans accumulating more heat, leaving less energy than normal to warm the atmosphere.

2013 Was the Second-Hottest Year on Record Without an El Niño

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