Is Global Warming Unstoppable?

In a provocative 2009 study, a University of Utah scientist argues that rising carbon dioxide emissions – the major cause of global warming – cannot be stabilized unless the world’s economy collapses or society builds the equivalent of one new nuclear power plant each day.

“It looks unlikely that there will be any substantial near-term departure from recently observed acceleration in carbon dioxide emission rates,” says the paper by Tim Garrett, an associate professor of atmospheric sciences.

The study – which is based on the concept that physics can be used to characterize the evolution of civilization – indicates:

• Energy conservation or efficiency doesn’t really save energy, but instead spurs economic growth and accelerated energy consumption.
• Throughout history, a simple physical “constant” – an unchanging mathematical value – links global energy use to the world’s accumulated economic productivity, adjusted for inflation.  So it isn’t necessary to consider population growth and standard of living in predicting society’s future energy consumption and resulting carbon dioxide emissions.
• “Stabilization of carbon dioxide emissions at current rates will require approximately 300 gigawatts of new non-carbon-dioxide-emitting power production capacity annually – approximately one new nuclear power plant (or equivalent) per day,” Garrett says.  “Physically, there are no other options without killing the economy.

Is Global Warming Unstoppable?