Wednesday, Nov 1

Improving Public Safety in Face of Extreme Weather and Disasters

Public safety during severe weather and other disasters could be improved with better alert systems and improved understanding of social and behavioral factors.

Our ability to observe and predict severe weather events and other disasters has improved markedly over recent decades, yet this progress does not always translate into similar advances in the systems used in such circumstances to protect lives.  A more cohesive alert and warning system that integrates public and private communications mechanisms and adopts new technologies quickly is needed to deliver critical information during emergency situations.  At the same time, better understanding of social and behavioral factors would improve the ways we communicate about hazards, inform response decisions such as evacuations, develop more resilient urban infrastructure, and take other steps to improve weather readiness.

Two reports by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine propose steps to improve public safety and resilience in the face of extreme weather and other disasters.

Emergency Alert and Warning Systems: Current Knowledge and Future Research Directions examines how government systems such as Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) and Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) will need to evolve as technology advances.  The transformation of these alert systems should be informed by both technological and social and behavioral sciences research, the report says.

Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise emphasizes the need for government agencies, industry, and academic institutions involved in the weather enterprise to work together to more actively engage social and behavioral scientists, in order to make greater progress in protecting life and enhancing prosperity.  While efforts to improve physical weather prediction should continue, the report says, realizing the greatest return on investment from such efforts requires understanding how people's contexts, experiences, knowledge, perceptions, and attitudes shape their responses to weather risks.

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Building a Sustainable Future: Urgent Action Needed

The scientists from the Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology argue that increasing demands for "thermal comfort" from the flourishing middle classes in countries like China, Brazil, and India could pose an enormous global challenge -- unless efficient and sustainable solutions for existing and new building stock are implemented as a matter of urgency.

Buildings already account for up to 40% of our global energy demands. New solutions are continually being developed to help homes and workplaces become more energy efficient -- from airtight envelopes and superinsulation materials to integrated photovoltaic panels.  When combined with user behavior, these solutions can help to reduce the energy consumption of our buildings by a factor of three.

However, the authors argue that huge variations in climate, economic power, building traditions, and -- perhaps most importantly -- public perception and attitude towards climate change, have resulted in vastly different adoption rates of new building materials and technologies in countries around the world.

For example, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions per square meter of new buildings in Europe have been reduced dramatically as a result of a coherent energy policy, the enforcement of strict building codes and the adoption of more energy-efficient technologies, they argue.

In contrast, different perceptions of the risks and consequences of climate change in the United States have resulted in a less coherent energy policy and less stringent building codes, the authors write.  This means that the adoption of energy-saving materials across the Atlantic is lagging behind the building sector in Europe -- an inertia that is magnified in other countries around the globe, according to the authors.

They argue that the growth in population and economic status in developing countries will place a particular strain on the successes gained by current energy efficiency efforts, as economic gain and energy demands to fuel continued economic growth will likely take center stage for developing countries in the future.

"The growth of a middle class in countries like China, Brazil, and India, and their increasing demand for thermal comfort, will precipitate a strong increase in cooling energy demands, unless efficient and sustainable solutions can be implemented readily and quickly," the authors conclude.

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Are the Grandkids Worth It? Climate Change Policy Depends on How We Value Human Population

If the human population continues to grow, more pressure will be put on carbon dioxide emissions -- leaving future generations vulnerable to the effects of climate change.  To head this off, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced, but that could cost billions of dollars or more over the next few decades, a dilemma plaguing today's policymakers.

Yet, how much to invest in policies -- like setting an appropriate carbon tax -- to protect future generations from environmental destruction depends on how society chooses to value human population, according to a new study published Oct. 30 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

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This Hybrid Electric Jet Is Preparing for Takeoff in 2022

The aviation industry has made steady progress in cutting its fuel use and carbon emissions.  Planes have become lighter, engines more efficient, and airlines are starting to use biofuel blends and to better manage their traffic flow in order to save money and reduce emissions.

Still, aviation produces about 2 percent of the world’s carbon emissions.  To reduce them further, Zunum Aero has a bold plan for a low-carbon flying future.  The Kirkland, Wash.-based startup plans to deliver its first hybrid electric plane in 2022.

The company, which came out of stealth in 2017 and has backing from Boeing and JetBlue’s venture capital arms, unveiled details of its aircraft in October.  The 12-seater jet will have a range of 700 miles and maximum cruise speed of 340 miles per hour.  It will generate 80 percent fewer emissions and produce 75 percent less noise.

Zunum’s business model is based on short commuter flights between small, regional airports.  With that strategy in place, they plan to cut costs and door-to-door travel time.  Flying from Boston to Washington, D.C. would cost $140 one way, the company predicts, and take around two and a half hours door-to-door, half as long as it takes now.

Zunum isn’t the first company to make a big promise for electric flight.  In September European budget airline EasyJet announced that it is developing a 180-seater electric plane for 2027 with Los Angeles-based Wright Electric.  Slovenian manufacturer Pipistrel has been selling Alpha Electro, a commercial electric aircraft for pilot training, since 2015.

Bye Aerospace in Englewood, Colo. has built a two-seater electric airplane similar to the Alpha Electro for pilot training, and it’s expected to cost less than a Cessna of that size.  Both Boeing and Airbus have experimented with electric propulsion.  NASA is also interested in electric aviation and is working on its X-57 electric airplane.

But while most of these companies are banking on huge advances in battery or fuel cell technologies, Zunum has chosen the hybrid route.  Today’s batteries are still too large and heavy for an all-electric aircraft with the size and range the company wants, says Waleed Said, Zunum Aero’s CTO of Power.  The Alpha Electro, for instance, has a range of about 80 miles.

Zunum’s airplane design has a “series hybrid” powertrain: propulsion is electric, with only an electric motor powering the drivetrain, but the engine extends the battery’s range by generating power for the motor.  Most hybrid electric cars, by contrast, use parallel hybrid or series-parallel hybrid powertrains.

The airplane will use a 1 megawatt battery.  Said says the company is currently testing batteries used in hybrid trucks and ships, but is not wedded to a specific battery technology.  “We’re trying to be battery independent and are designing the airplane to accept the most efficient, safest, and lightest battery available in 2022,” he says.

Zunum’s engineers are now focused on making the aircraft super-efficient.  That means including the obvious features such as lightweight parts, a composite airframe, and a sleek shape.  But the engineers are also devising ways to use waste heat from the engine to heat the cabin or de-icing systems, and using the motor’s wind-milling action to recharge the battery during periods of slow flight or on a descent (akin to regenerative braking in cars).

Zunum will begin flight tests by 2019.  By 2030 the company plans to develop 50-seat airplanes with a 1,000 mile range.

This Hybrid Electric Jet Is Preparing for Takeoff in 2022

Land Use Can Achieve 30% of Carbon Cuts by 2030

Rethinking land use – the way we exploit, manage and neglect the land – could achieve  about a third of the carbon cuts needed in the next decade.

Land use is often a forgotten priority, yet those of us who wish to contain global warming and avert catastrophic climate change have a natural ally:  the land.

As nations plan to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion, an international team of scientists has calculated just how much the natural and farmed world could contribute to future stability by absorbing ever more carbon dioxide.

The answer is:  up to 30% more than anyone had first thought.  Natural climate solutions – a way of saving protected forests, conserved marshlands and carefully managed farmland and pasture – could deliver 37% of the carbon mitigation needed by 2030.

And if governments, farmers, river authorities, land managers and foresters made the best choices, such steps would mean that the world had a 66% chance of containing global warming to below the 2°C target agreed by 197 nations in Paris in 2015.

There are problems:  the same natural machinery that could convert atmospheric carbon into foliage, timber, and roots must also provide food and shelter for the expected 9 billion humans and the millions of animal species with whom humans share the planet.

But researchers report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that even after accounting for food security, the delivery of fabrics for clothing and shelter, and the protection of biodiversity, their natural climate solutions could account for 23.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent every year, almost a third more than previous calculations.

Read more at Land Use Can Achieve 30% of Carbon Cuts by 2030

Is China the Leader UN Climate Talks Need?

Xi Jinping’s trillion-dollar overseas investment strategy has not caught up with his green rhetoric, environmentalists warn as countries head to Bonn climate summit.

China is more assertive than ever about its climate leadership ambitions, as 195 countries head to Bonn for the annual UN summit.

At a five-yearly party congress in mid-October, president Xi Jinping for the first time spelled out China’s ambition to take up “the driving seat” of international debate on climate change.

Many are looking to the world’s biggest emitter to fill the leadership role that Donald Trump’s US has vacated.  Chinese officials take pride in the country’s contribution to cementing the Paris climate accord and its shift towards less carbon-intensive growth.

“Xi’s high profile announcement at the party congress, the most important political gathering, effectively ends domestic debates about whether China should step up,” says Greenpeace senior advisor Li Shuo.

Yet the country’s biggest influence over global affairs comes with its trillion-dollar overseas investment plan, known as “belt and road”.  This has a huge carbon footprint, experts warn.

Hailed by Xi as the “project of the century”, the strategy spans 69 countries, rolling out infrastructure that could make or break the Paris agreement.

“Leadership is not self claimed.  People will look at what you do, both domestically and internationally.  China has indeed made great endeavors to decarbonize its economy at home,” says Wu Changhua, China/Asia director for Jeremy Rifkin Office.

”Internationally, however, this contradiction between overseas climate footprint and the leadership rhetoric is yet to be recognized by Chinese officials and investors.”

At a belt and road summit in May, Xi promised to stick to the concept of “green development” and establish “an international coalition for green development”.  Several ministries – including environment, foreign affairs, commerce and national development and reform commissions – in May issued guidance for the “green belt and road initiative”.

Liu Youbin, a spokesperson for the environmental ministry, said on Tuesday the ministry was guiding Chinese enterprises to “abide by local environmental regulations at host countries” for the belt and road projects.  Some Chinese companies are adopting stricter environmental standards than requested by local law, he added.

But so far, in government’s grand plan for the belt and road initiative, there are few guidelines for Chinese investors and enterprises to follow in terms of projects’ climate impact, according to Yang Fuqiang, a senior adviser on climate and energy with the Natural Resources Defense Council’s China program.

“The investment in coal-fired power plants is so intensive in some countries, for instance Pakistan, that might even jeopardize the 2 degree limit of temperature rise set in the Paris Agreement,” says Yang.

In 2016 alone, state-backed China Development Bank, Export-Import Bank of China and China Silk Road Fund financed over $4 billion worth of overseas coal projects, according to data collected by NRDC.  That accounts for half of the foreign coal investment by G20 countries.

Statistics by Global Environment Institute (GEI) show Chinese investment in overseas coal projects surged between 2013 and 2015, filling a gap left by western institutions such as the World Bank.

That is because Chinese lenders are still very much focusing their risk analysis on credit, market, and compliance, while paying insufficient attention to social and environmental risks, says Bai Yunwen, a researcher with Greenovation Hub, a Chinese environmental group.

There is a risk of Chinese companies exporting excessive or obsolete production capacity, adds Yang, giving the example of a cement plant China built in Kazakhstan using outdated technology.

Read more at Is China the Leader UN Climate Talks Need?